The Efficient Market Hypothesis

The Efficient Market Hypothesis evolved in the 1960s from the Ph.D. dissertation of Eugene Fama. Fama persuasively made the argument that in an active market that includes many well-informed and intelligent investors, securities will be appropriately priced and reflect all available information. If a market is efficient, no information or analysis can be expected to result in outperformance of an appropriate benchmark.

Faced with the inference that they cannot add value, many active managers argue that the markets are not efficient (otherwise their jobs can be viewed as nothing more than speculation). Similarly, the investment media is generally considered to be ambivalent toward the efficient market hypothesis because they make money supplying information to investors who believe that the information has value (beyond the time when it initially becomes public). If the information is rapidly reflected in prices, there is no reason for investors to seek (or purchase) information about securities and markets.

Although this is a much discussed subject, no discussion of financial markets can avoid this issue. 

New debt

The market did have trouble digesting the amount of new debt. Treasury debt in the 5 -10 year range is going to be met with little enthusiasm for quite awhile I suspect. Who would want to go out that far on the yield curve if interest rate increases are right around the corner? (Remember that the longer the duration the more sensitive the bond is to interest rate changes)

As for the stability of the economy, if it is viewed as unstable, that would be the time to move from equities or more risky investments into Treasuries. So Greenspan’s comments, rallied Treasuries on the fear he mentioned regarding geopolitical events. So the geopolitical risks actually helped the new offering gain acceptance.

Shocks can be overcome

Exogenous shocks (like someone bombing the Golden Gate Bridge), can be overcome even in the short term. So I don’t see it as a deterrent to the economy “muddling along” but a drop in consumer spending would cause me to worry considerably. Consumer spending has held up incredibly in the face of all kinds of events. I would hate to see it get tired. Even though “targeted capital investment” does have opportunity, a lack of consumer demand for so many mainstream businesses would make the mud in muddling that much deeper.

And that is Just My Humble Opinion (JMHO) 🙂