How about that 30 year?

Why aren’t they bringing back the 30 year yet, even though interest rates are down. Interesting that the Fed didn’t address it further, and don’t count on them not bringing it back at some time in the future.

Crowding out will not be a problem for the foreseeable future as the stock market is not “hot” and there are many that are looking for a “solid” return. Also, the amounts are still small compared to the overall market. This theory is not fact and may not occur at all.

Regarding politics and the Treasury, the debt ceiling will have to be lifted soon. As this is done by congress, there democrats will probably have something to say before they approve the increase. (They have to eventually approve it as otherwise the US Government would default on their debt)

Price stability

The fed wants/needs to see economic growth. As you know, they have put an extremely accommodative monetary policy in place for just that reason.

The point I want to make is that employment/economic growth (the current goal) hasn’t surpassed price stability as their key concern overall. In general, the most important issue to the Fed is price stability followed by employment/economic growth. Only because inflation is under control is economic growth their goal. In the event they see inflation rising to a level that they are uncomfortable with, they will act to control it at the expense of economic growth/employment.

As for more than one goal at a time, they can’t use their influence to step on the brakes to curb inflation while they step on the gas to get the economy going. They have to choose a restrictive monetary policy (putting the brakes on the economy) or an accommodative monetary policy (pushing the gas of the economy). They often try to find a middle ground but it never lasts for long.

Econ update

War, war, war, when will it ever start?  Powell didn’t convince everyone and the markets are not rising.  We did get good economic news as employment rose to 5.7% in January which occurred because of a seasonal hiring spree at stores, restaurants and bars.  But it fueled the first recorded U.S. job growth in four months but economists cautioned the gains appeared to be on paper only.  Analysts had expected the rate to hold steady with modest job growth instead of the payrolls increase of 143,000 — the largest since November 2000. That follows a loss of 156,000 jobs in December.  Again, the analysts expect it to get worse with war worries and companies failure to commit to the economic recovery. 

U.S. worker productivity abruptly reversed in the final quarter of last year as the economy slowed, the government said on Thursday, though gains for the whole year were the largest in over 50 years. A separate report showed a slight drop in the number of American’s lining up for the first time to claim unemployment benefits.

The Labor Department also reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 1 fell by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 391,000. That was higher than the 389,000 expected by analysts and followed a revised 402,000 for the previous week.

John Snow got through his grilling on Capital Hill last week and became our new Treasury Secretary.  The replacement for SEC chair Harvey Pitt, William Donaldson was taking his turn at the grilling.  Only a couple of issues were painful and all expect the former head of the NYSE to be confirmed.  Interesting to note that it took this long and gave the ousted Pitt quite a bit of time to leave his mark on the agency.

U.S. consumer credit outstanding posted its biggest drop in 12 years in December, capping the slowest year for credit growth in a decade, the Federal Reserve said on Friday.  The central bank said consumer debt fell by $4.0 billion in December, the largest drop since a $5.8 billion decrease in December 1990, when the U.S. economy was in the throes of recession.

In percentage terms, consumer debt declined at a 2.75 percent annual rate in December, the biggest monthly decline since a 3 percent drop in April 1992.

The decline, which came as a surprise on Wall Street where economists had expected a $3.3 billion rise, followed a revised November drop of $100 million. The Fed had originally said credit decreased $2.2 billion in November.

November and December marked the first back-to-back decreases since May and June of 1992, when the economy was still crawling back from the 1990-91 downturn.

Maybe we do have all the stuff we need for awhile?