Expectations are critical

Expectations are critical. The emotions of the market can’t be underestimated or avoided. I am still in the camp that it would take a series of events to change behavior to create a new lower equilibrium. We can’t discount the effect a major event would have and just because we have traditionally bounced back from single events doesn’t mean we will next time. In fact, if it were a terrorist act, it could be considered a continuation of current events which would fit with my position that it would take more than a single event. We just don’t know what straw will break the consumers back, if any.

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